Yale School of Management


An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services

with Gregg S. Gonsalves, Forrest W. Crawford, Paul D. Cleary, and A. David Paltiel Medical Decision Making, 2017 (online first)


A Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States

with Gregg S. Gonsalves, A. David Paltiel, Paul D. Cleary, Michael John Gill, Mari M. Kitahata, Peter F. Rebeiro, Michael J. Silverberg, Michael Horberg, Alison G. Abraham, Keri N. Althoff, Richard Moore, Ronald J. Bosch, Tian Tiang, and H. Irene Hall

Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 75(5):548-553, 2017


Differential Terror Queue Games

With Stefan Wrzaczek, Andrea Seidl, Jonathan P. Caulkins, and Gustav Feichtinger

December 2017, Volume 7, Issue 4, pp 578–593


Optimal Control of a Terror Queue
with Andrea Seidl, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Stefan Wrzaczek and Gustav Feichtinger
European Journal of Operational Research, 248:246-256, 2016.


A Markov Model for Hockey: Manpower Differential and Win Probability Added

with Kevin Mongeon and John T. Ryan

INFOR: Journal of the Canadian Operational Research Society, 52(2):39-50, 2014


Reducing Sexual Violence by Increasing the Supply of Toilets in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Mathematical Model

with Gregg Gonsalves and David Paltiel
PLOS One, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122244, April 2015


Socially Efficient Detection of Terror Plots

Oxford Economic Papers, 67:104-115, 2015.


Mass Casualty Potential of Qassam Rockets

with Lian Zucker

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 37:258–266, 2014


Staffing Models for Covert Counterterrorism Agencies

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 47:2-8, 2013

Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 35:880-894, 2012

Intelligence Operations Research

Operations Research, 60:1297-1309, 2012

Intel Queues

with Jonathan Feinstein

Military Operations Research 17:17-30, 2012

Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks

with Jonathan Feinstein

Public Choice 149:281-295, 2011

Operations Research and Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundation, (Baruch Fischhoff and Cherie Chauvin, editors).  National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 31-56, 2011.

Terror Queues
Operations Research 58:773-784, 2010

Queue inference from periodic reporting data
with Jesse Frey
Operations Research Letters 38:420-426, 2010

Baseline, Placebo, and Treatment: Efficient Estimation for Three-Group Experiments
with Alan Gerber, Don Green, and Holger Kern
Political Analysis 18:297-315, 2010

Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization
with Jonathan Feinstein
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52:281-302, 2010

Confronting Entrenched Insurgents
with Moshe Kress and Roberto Szechtman
Operations Research, 58:329-341, 2010

FCFS Infinite Bipartite Matching of Servers and Customers
with Rene Caldentey and Gideon Weiss
Advances in Applied Probability, 41:695-730, 2009

Nature Plays with Dice - Terrorists Do Not: Allocating Resources to Counter Strategic and Probabilistic Risks
with Boaz Golany, Avi Marmur and Uri Rothblum
European Journal of Operational Research, 192:198-208, 2009

Estimation of HIV incidence in the United States
with H. Irene Hall, Ruiguang Song, Philip Rhodes, Joseph Prejean, Qian An, Lisa Lee, John Karon, Ron Brookmeyer, Matthew McKenna, and Robert Janssen
Journal of the American Medical Association, 300:520-529, 2008

Estimating HIV incidence in the United States from HIV/AIDS surveillance data and biomarker HIV test results
with John Karon, Ruiguang Song, Ron Brookmeyer and H. Irene Hall
Statistics in Medicine 27:4617–4633, 2008

Modeling a presidential prediction market
with M. Keith Chen and Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr.
Management Science, 54:1381-1394, 2008

Suicide bombings and targeted killings in (counter) terror games
with Daniel Jacobson
Journal of Conflict Resolution 51:772-792, 2007

A cure for the electoral college?
with Arnold Barnett
Chance 20:6-9, 2007

Getting Started.  In The Operations Research Center at MIT
(Ingrid Yoerg Larson, editor)
Topics in Operations Research Series.
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, pp. 51-58, 2007.

Situational Awareness in a Bioterror Attack via Probability Modeling

with Johan Walden, in Risk Assessment and Risk Communication Strategies in Bioterrorism Preparedness

(MS Green, J Zenilman, D Cohen, I Wiser and RD Balicer, editors),
 NATO Science for Peace and Security Series A: Chemistry and Biology, Part I, pp. 31-44, 2007

Anti-Israel sentiment predicts antisemitism in Europe.
with Charles Small
Journal of Conflict Resolution 50:548-561, 2006

Tactical prevention of suicide bombings in Israel.
with Alex Mintz and Shaul Mishal
Interfaces 36(6):553-561, 2006

Adventures in policy modeling: Operations research in the community and beyond.
Omega 36(1): 1–9, 2008.

Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: A best-case analysis.
with Moshe Kress

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102:10399-10404, 2005

What happened to suicide bombings in Israel?  Insights from a terror stock model.
with Alex Mintz, Shaul Mishal, and Claudio Samban
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28:225-235, 2005

reprinted as a chapter in Psychology of Terrorism: The Best Writings about the Mind of the Terrorist (Edited by Jeff Victoroff and Arie W Kruglanski, Psychology Press, Taylor and Francis, 2007)
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28:225-235, 2005

Estimating time and size of a bioterror attack
with Johan Walden
Emerging Infectious Diseases 10:1202-1205, 2004

The illusion of learning from observational research.
with Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber
Chapter 12 (pp. 251-273) in Shapiro I, Smith RM and Masoud TE (Eds.), Problems and Methods in the Study of Politics, Cambridge University Press, 2004

Preventing second generation infections in a smallpox bioterror attack,
Epidemiology 15:264-270, 2004.

Decision making for bioterror preparedness: examples from smallpox vaccination policy.
with Lawrence M. Wein
In Sainfort F, Brandeau ML and Pierskalla, WP (Eds.), Handbook of Operations Research and Health Care: Methods and Applications, pp. 519-536, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004

Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox
with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein
Mathematical Biosciences 185:33-72, 2003

Smallpox bioterror response [letter]
with Lawrence M. Wein
Science, 300:1503, 2003

Detecting a bioterror attack by screening blood donors: a best-case analysis
with Christopher Patton, William FitzGerald, and Lawrence M. Wein
Emerging Infectious Diseases 9:909-914,

Emergency response to an anthrax attack
with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
100:4346-4351, 2003.  (Published online before print March 21, 2003, 10.1073/pnas.0636861100)

More March Madness
with Michael Magazine
OR/MS Today
30(1):38-42, 2003

Optimizing admissions to an intensive care unit
with Charles Sprung and Amir Shmueli
Health Care Management Science
6:131-136, 2003

Smallpox eradication in West and Central Africa: surveillance-containment or herd immunity?
with Lawrence M. Wein
Epidemiology 14:90-92, 2003

A new approach to estimating the probability of winning the presidency
with Arnold Barnett
Operations Research
, 51:32-40, 2003

Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination
with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
99:10935-10940, 2002.  (Published online before print July 12, 2002 (10.1073/pnas.162282799)

Allocating HIV prevention resources: balancing efficiency and equity
with Michael Merson
American Journal of Public Health
92:1905-1907, 2002

A model-based evaluation of a cultural mediator outreach Program for HIV+ Ethiopian immigrants in Israel
with Varda Soskolne, Ronny Shtarkshall, Bella Adler and Alexander Leventhal
Evaluation Review
26:382-394, 2002

Evaluating plasma holds in the presence of multiple infections
IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, 18:215-224, 2001

March Madness and the Office Pool
with Stanley J. Garstka
Management Science, 47:369-382

The Public Health Consequences of Screening Patients for Adherence to HAART
with Eric Tchetgen and Gerald Friedland
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
, 26:118-129

Repeat Screening for HIV: When to Test and Why
with Glen Satten
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
, 23:339-345, 2000

Treatment on Demand: An Operational Model
with Mira Johri
Health Care Management Science
3:171-183, 2000

Hold Everything!  Holding Policies for Protecting Plasma Supplies
with Glen Satten
Mathematical Biosciences 160:159-173, 1999

Implicit Valuation of a Blood Exclusion Decision
Medical Decision Making, 19:207-213, 1999

Snapshot Estimators of Recent HIV Incidence Rates
with Ron Brookmeyer
Operations Research, 47:29-37, 1999

Allocating HIV Prevention Resources
with H. Pollack
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 32:257-263, 1998

Can Difficult-To-Reuse Syringes Reduce the Spread of HIV Among IDUs?
with J.P. Caulkins, P. Lurie, T. O'Connor and S-H Ahn
Interfaces, 28(3):23-33, 1998

Economic Evaluation and HIV Prevention Community Planning - A Policy Analyst's Perspective
Handbook of Economic Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs
. David Holtgrave (editor), 177-193, 1998 (Plenum Press, New York)

A Mathematical Model of HIV Transmission in New South Wales Prisons
with K. Dolan, A. Wodak, and W. Hall
Drug and Alcohol Dependence
, 50:197-202, 1998

HIV Incidence among Ethiopian Immigrants to Israel
with E. Kedem and S. Pollack
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology
, 17:465-469, 1998

Israel’s Ban on Use of Ethiopians’ Blood:  How Many Infectious Donations were Prevented?
The Lancet, 351:1127-1128, 1998

Mixing Behavior in Cross-Country Diffusion
with W. Putsis, S. Balasubramian, and S. Sen
Marketing Science
, 16:354-369, 1997

A Note on the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing:  Accounting for Differential Participation Rates
with A. David Paltiel
Medical Decision Making, 17:490-495, 1997

Snapshot Samples
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences , 31:281-291, 1997

How Many HIV Infections Are There in Israel?  Reconstructing HIV Incidence from AIDS Case Reporting
with P. Slater and V. Soskolne
Public Health Reviews
, 23:215-235, 1995

Economic Analysis of Needle Exchange
AIDS, 9:1113-1119, 1995

Probability Models of Needle Exchange
Operations Research, 43:558-569, 1995

HIV Incidence among New Haven Needle Exchange Participants:  Updated Estimates from Syringe Tracking and Testing Data
with R. Heimer
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
, 10:175-176, 1995

"Dropouts" or "Dropins"?  Client Retention and Participation in New Haven's Needle Exchange Program
with K. Khoshnood and R. Heimer
Public Health Reports
, 110:462-466, 1995

An Analysis of the Process of HIV Sexual Risk Behavior Change
with S.M. Blower and G.J.P. van Griensven
6:238-242, 1995

Model-Based Representations of Human Sexual Behavior
in Sexual Nature, Sexual Culture (P. Abramson and S. Pinkerton, eds.), University of Chicago Press, pp. 353-370, 1995

A Method for Evaluating Needle Exchange Programs
Statistics in Medicine, 13:2179-2187, 1994

A Decline in HIV-Infected Needles Returned to a Needle Exchange Program:  Client Shift or Needle Exchange?
with K. Khoshnood and R. Heimer
American Journal of Public Health, 84:1991-1994, 1994

AIDS Policy Modeling by Example
with M. Brandeau
AIDS, 8 (suppl 1):S333-S340, 1994

A Circulation Theory of Needle Exchange
with R. Heimer
, 8:567-574, 1994

HIV Incidence Among Needle Exchange Participants:  Estimates from Syringe Tracking and Testing Data
with R. Heimer
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
, 7:182-189, 1994

Deterministic Approximations for Inventory Management at Service Facilities
with O. Berman and D. Shimshak
IIE Transactions, 25(5):98-104, 1993

What Happened to HIV Transmission among Drug Injectors in New Haven?
with R. Heimer
Chance, 6(2):9-14, 1993

Let The Needles Do The Talking!  Evaluating the New Haven Needle Exchange
with E. O'Keefe; Edelman Award Paper
Interfaces, 23(1):7-26, 1993

abstract appears in "Abstracts of the Marschak Colloquium at UCLA," Mathematical Social Sciences, 26:99-101, 1993

Needle Exchange Decreases the Prevalence of HIV-1 Proviral DNA in Returned Syringes in New Haven, Connecticut
with R. Heimer, K. Khoshnood, B. Jariwala, and E. Cadman
American Journal of Medicine
, 95:214-220, 1993

The Epidemiological and Economic Consequences of AIDS Clinical Trials
with A.D. Paltiel
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 6:179-190, 1993
(also see editorial in same journal, 6:176-178)

How Many Drug Injectors Are There in New Haven?  Answers from AIDS Data
with D. Soloshatz
Mathematical and Computer Modelling
, 17:109-115, 1993

Prevalence of HIV-Infected Syringes During a Syringe-Exchange Program
with R. Heimer and E.C. Cadman
New England Journal of Medicine, 327:1883-1884, 1992

To Be Or Not To Be?  That Is Conception!  Managing In Vitro Fertilization Programs
with A. Hershlag, A.H. DeCherney, and G. Lavy
Management Science, 38:1217-1229, 1992

A Model-Based Estimate of HIV Infectivity via Needle Sharing
with R. Heimer
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
, 5:1116-1118, 1992

Needle Exchange or Needless Exchange?  The State of the Debate
Infectious Agents and Disease, 1:92-98, 1992

Detection by Polymerase Chain Reaction of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Proviral DNA Sequences in Needles of Injecting Drug Users
with R. Heimer, S.S. Myers, and E.C. Cadman
Journal of Infectious Diseases
, 165:781-782, 1992

R0 Bounds for Worst Case Endemic Mixing Models
Mathematical Biosciences, 110:131-132, 1992.

Asymptotic Worst-Case Mixing in Simple Demographic Models of HIV/AIDS
Mathematical Biosciences, 108:141-156, 1992

HIV Prevalence Among Intravenous Drug Users:  Model-Based Estimates from New Haven's Legal Needle Exchange
with R. Heimer
from New Haven's Legal Needle Exchange, Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 5:163-169, 1992

Evaluating Needle-Exchange Programs via Syringe Tracking and Testing (STT)
AIDS and Public Policy Journal, 6:109-115, 1991

Heterogeneity in Patient Populations Explains Differences in In Vitro Fertilization Programs
with A. Hershlag, R. Loy, A. DeCherney, and G. Lavy
Fertility and Sterility
, 56:913-917, 1991

Modeling Zidovudine Therapy:  A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
with A.D. Paltiel
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 4:795-804, 1991

AIDS Impact on the Number of Intravenous Drug Users
with J. Caulkins
, 21:50-63, 1991

Mean-Max Bounds for Worst Case Endemic Mixing Models
Mathematical Biosciences, 105:97-109, 1991

Worst Case Analysis of Sexual Mixing Models of HIV Transmission
Journal of Sex Research, 28:29-44, 1991

Self-Deferral, HIV Infection, and the Blood Supply:  Evaluating an AIDS Intervention
with A. Novick
Evaluation Review, 14:686-700, 1990

An Overview of AIDS Modeling
Evaluating AIDS Prevention:  Contributions of Multiple Disciplines
New Directions For Program Evaluation, 46:23-36, 1990

How Bad Can It Get?  Bounding Worst-Case Endemic Heterogeneous Mixing Models of HIV/AIDS
with Y.S. Lee
Mathematical Biosciences, 99:157-180, 1990

Modeling HIV Infectivity:  Must Sex Acts Be Counted?
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 3:55-61, 1990

Equity Maximizing Facility Location Schemes
with O. Berman
Transportation Science
, 24:137-144, 1990

Nonrandom Mixing Models of HIV Transmission
with P.C. Cramton and A.D. Paltiel
Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, 83:218-241, 1989

Can Bad Models Suggest Good Policies?  Sexual Mixing and the AIDS Epidemic
Journal of Sex Research, 26:301-314, 1989

What Are The Risks Of Risky Sex?  Modeling The AIDS Epidemic
Operations Research, 37:198-209, 1989

Needles That Kill:  Modeling HIV Transmission Via Shared Drug Injection Equipment In Shooting Galleries
Reviews of Infectious Diseases, 11:289-298, 1989 (Erratum, 11:672, 1989)

So What If The Program Ain't Perfect?  A Mathematical Model of AIDS Education
with P. Abramson
Evaluation Review
, 13:107-122, 1989

OR Hits the Heights:  Relocation Planning At The Orient Heights Housing Project
with O. Berman
, 18:14-21, 1988

Relocation Problems Are Hard
with A. Amir
International Journal of Computer Mathematics, 25:101-110, 1988

A Public Housing Queue With Reneging And Task-Specific Servers
Decision Sciences, 19:383-391, 1988

A Fast Feasibility Test For Relocation Problems
with A. Amir
European Journal of Operational Research, 35:201-206, 1988

Facility Location And Capacity Planning With Delay-Dependent Demand
with O. Berman
International Journal of Production Research, 25:1173-1780, 1987

Tenant Assignment Policies With Time-Dependent Priorities
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 21:305-310, 1987

Analyzing Tenant Assignment Policies
Management Science, 33:395-408, 1987

Tenant Assignment Models
Operations Research, 34:832-843, 1986

Relocation Models For Public Housing Redevelopment Programs
Planning and Design, 13:5-19, 1986

Tenant Assignments:  How PHA's Fill Their Units
Journal of Housing, 42:13-20, 1985

Trip Distributions Revisited:  A New Look At An Old Model
Geographical Analysis, 13:78-85, 1981

Evaluating the Effectiveness Of One-Officer Versus Two-Officer Patrol Units
Journal of Criminal Justice, 7:325-355, 1979