Peter K Schott
Juan Trippe Professor of International Economics
Yale School of Management
165 Whitney Avenue
New Haven, CT 06511
Phone:  203.436.4260
Fax:  203.432.6974

Version 2019.7.18



Working Papers

Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization (June 2019) Joint w/Greenland, Ion, and Lopresti.

·         Previous version: February 2019

Structural Change Within versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States (March 2019) Joint w/Ding, Fort and Redding

Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections? (April 2017) Joint w/Che, Lu, Pierce and Tao.

·         Press coverage: WSJ (2016.8.11). 

Trade Policy and the Structure of Supply Chains (February 2017) Joint w/Heise, Pierce and Schaur

Insertion of Argentine Firms in Global Value Chains Not Oriented to the Mass Market (November 2012) Joint w/Gonzalez, Hallak and Soria Genta

Vietnam’s Textile and Clothing Exports to the U.S. Under OTEXA Monitoring (September 2007)

Transfer Pricing by U.S.-Based Multinational Firms (August 2006)  Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen.

·         Press Coverage: Economist (2007.2.24)


Journal Publications

Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties 2018. American Economic Review: Insights (Forthcoming). Joint w/Pierce.

·         Press coverage: Atlantic (2018.6.8); CBS News (2018.6.4); Vox (201710.19); Slate (2017.5.17); CBS News (2017.3.29); Washington Post (2017.303); Boston Globe (2016.12.27); Der Spiegel (2016.12.16); NPR (2016.12.8); Vox (2016.11.30); Fortune (2016.11.29); Business Insider (2016.11.26), WSJ (2016.11.28), Fortune (2016.11.24), Daily Mail (2016.11.24), Slate (2016.11.23), Washington Post (2016.11.23), WSJ (2016.11.23), Bloomberg (2016.11.22), Forbes (2016.2.15)

·         Policy speeches: Janet Yellen (2017.12.5); Lael Brainard (2017.9.26); Lael Brainard (2017.5.22) 

·         Previous versions: November 2016

Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Plants. Journal of International Economics 115(2018): 203-222. Joint w/Pierce.

New Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2018. Journal of Economic Perspectives 32(2): 47-72. Joint w/Fort and Pierce. Appendix

·         Press coverage: Financial Times (2019.1.10)

·         Slides (2018.7.2)

·         Online Appendix

·         Data Appendix

Global Firms. 2018. Journal of Economic Literature 56(2):565-619. Joint w/Bernard, Jensen and Redding.

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 22727 (2016)

·         Summaries: Vox (2016.12.22); Peterson Institute 2016.12.7)

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment. 2016.  American Economic Review 106(7):1632-62. Joint w/Pierce. Appendix. Data directory.

·         Slides: slides

·         Prior versions: 1st NBER WP 18655 Version (2012); 2nd NBER WP Version (2013) 

·         Press coverage: Bloomberg (2019.5.14), Quartz (2018.45.3), Washington Post (2017.3.31), Politifact (2017.3.24), WSJ (2016.8.16), Washington Post (2013.1.6), WSJ (2013.1.7), NYT (2013.1.7), WSJ (2013.1.8), International Herald Tribune (2013.1.9), WSJ (2013.1.14), Washington Post (2014.6.26)Washington Post (2015.3.12)WSJ (2015.4.29)Bloomberg (2015.6.18)NYT (2015.7.8)Vox (2016.7.8)LA Times (2016.8.11)WSJ (2016.8.11)The Economist (2016.10.1) 

Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporter. 2013. American Economic Review 103(6):2169-95. Joint w/Khandelwal and Wei.

·         Slides

·         Data for Canada, EU and US (see paper for description).

Testing for Relative Factor Price Equality with Unobserved Differences in Factor Quality or Productivity. 2013. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 5(2):135-163. Joint w/ Redding and Bernard.

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 8068 (2001) 

A Concordance Between Ten-Digit U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries. 2012. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 37(1-2):61-96. Joint w/ Pierce.

·         Appendix

The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade. 2012. Annual Review of Economics 4: 283-313. Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen and Redding.

Concording U.S. Harmonized System Categories Over Time  Journal of Official Statistics 28(1):53-68 (March 2012). Joint w/ Pierce.

·         Data Appendix

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 14837 (2009); CES Working Paper (CES-WP-09-11) 

Multi-Product Firms and Trade Liberalization Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(3):1271-1318 (2011). Joint w/ Bernard, Redding.

·         Technical appendix

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 12782 (2006)

Estimating Cross-Country Differences in Product Quality Quarterly Journal of Economics 126(1):417-474. (2011) Joint w/ Hallak. Additional materials

·         Technical appendix

·         Zip file containing data and programs

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 13807 (2008)

Is Mexico a Lumpy Country? Review of International Economics 18(5):937-950. Joint w/ Bernard, Robertson. 

·         Additional results

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 10898 (2004)

Intra-firm Trade and Product Contractibility American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 100(2): 444-448 (May 2010). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen and Redding.Joint w/Bernard, Jensen, Redding

·         Long version

Wholesalers and Retailers in U.S. Trade. American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 100(2): 408-413 (May 2010). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen and Redding.Joint w/Bernard, Jensen, Redding

·         Long version

Multi-Product Firms and Product Switching American Economic Review 100:70-97 (March 2010). Joint w/ Bernard, Redding.

·         Technical appendix

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 9789 (2003)

·         This paper was also briefly circulated under the title “Multi-Product Firms and the Dynamics of Product Mix”

Products and Productivity Scandinavian Journal of Economics 111(4):681-709 (December 2009). Joint w/ Bernard, Redding.

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 11575 (2005)

The Margins of U.S. Trade  American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 99(2):487-493 (May 2009). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen and Redding.

·         Long version 

Relative Wage Variation and Industry Location in the United Kingdom Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 70(4):431-459 (August 2008). Joint w/ Bernard, Redding and Simpson. 

·         Prior version: NBER WP 9998 (2003)

The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports  Economic Policy 53:5-49 (January 2008).

·         Press coverage: New Yorker, Economist, Newsweek

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 12173 (2006)

Firms in International Trade Journal of Economic Perspectives 21(3):105-130 (Summer 2007). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen, Redding.

·         Slides

·         Press coverage: WSJ (2008.8.4);  Economist (2008.12.30)

·         Previous versions: NBER WP 13054 (2007)

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms Review of Economic Studies 74(1):31-66 (January 2007). Joint w/ Bernard, Redding. 

·         Computer code

·         Previous versions: NBER WP 10668 (2004)

Trade Costs, Firms and Productivity Journal of Monetary Economics 53(5): 917-937 (July 2006). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen.

·         Published version

·         Data and description of data

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 9639 (2003)

Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of US Manufacturing Plants. Journal of International Economics 68(1):219-237 (January 2006). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen. 

·         Published version

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 9170 (2002)

·         Publicly available data on trade costs and low-wage country penetration that are used in this paper can be found here, here and here, and are described here. New data for updating these measures is available here.

Across-Product versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(2):647-678 (May 2004). 

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 8492 (2001) 

Distance, Skill Deepening and Development: Will Peripheral Countries Ever Get Rich? Journal of Development Economics 72(2):515-541 (December 2003). Joint w/ Redding.

·         Published version

·         Prior versions: NBER WP 9447 (2003)

A Comparison of Latin American and Asian Product Exports to the United States, 1972 to 1999. Latin American Journal of Economics. 121:414-422 (December 2003).

One Size Fits All? Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization in Global Production American Economic Review 93(2):686-708 (June 2003).  

·         Errata

·         Country-industry capital intensity ata.

·         Prior versions: NBER Working Paper 8244 (2001) 

Does Natural Resource Abundance Cause Latin American Income Inequality? Journal of Development Economics 59(1): 3-42. Joint w/ Leamer, Maul and Rodriguez.

·         Data

Book Chapters / Other Publications

The Distributional Implications of Trade Liberalization with China (2017) in Simon Evenett (ed.), Cloth for Wine? The Relevance of Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage in the 21stCentury (CEPR Press). Joint w/ Pierce.

America’s Hidden Austerity Program, New York Times (Economix, June 11, 2012), joint w/ Polak.

The 2005 to 2008 Appreciation of the Yuan and U.S. Trade (April 2009), in Simon Evenett (ed), The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights from Economics, Politics and Law (VoxEU: Geneva)

U.S. Trade Margins During the 2008 Crisis (November 2009), in Richard Baldwin (ed), The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects (VoxEU: Geneva)

China’s Experience Under the MFA/ATC (2010) in Robert Feenstra and Shag-Jin Wei (eds.), China’s Growing Role in World Trade (University of Chicago Press, 2010). Joint w/ Brambilla, Khandelwal. Note: this is a revised version of NBER Working Paper 13346. Data used in this paper.

Importers, Exporters and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods in T. Dunne, J.B. Jensen and M.J. Roberts (eds.), Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data (University of Chicago Press, 2009). Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen. This chapter is a revised version of NBER Working Paper 11404.

How does China compete with developed countries? Vox (October 2007)

The Rich (and Poor) Keep Getting Richer  Harvard Business Review 83(4):20 (April 2005).  Joint w/ Leamer.

How Offshore Work Affects Your Industry Harvard Business Review 82(11):24 (November 2004).  Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen.

 “Concerts and Regional Intervention” in David Lake and Patrick Morgan (eds.), Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World. (Penn State Press, 1997).  Joint w/ Rosecrance.


Policy/Background/Technical/Dataset Papers

Report on the State of Available Data for the Study of International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (August 2010). Joint with Feenstra, Lipsey, Branstetter, Foley, Harrigan, Jensen, Kletzer, Mann and Wright. NBER Working Paper 16254.

Vietnam’s Textile and Clothing Exports to the U.S. Under OTEXA Monitoring (September 2007)

Assessing the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Import-Competing Industries in the Appalachian Region (September 2004).  Joint with Bernard, Jensen.

Facing the Dragon:  The Prospects for U.S. Manufacturing in the Coming Decade (May 2004).  Joint w/ Bernard, Jensen.  Wall Street Journal article about this paper (8.17.2004).

US Imports, Exports and Tariff Data, 1989 to 2001. (November 2002) Joint w/ Feenstra, Romalis (NBER 9387). Click here to download data.

Land Abundance as a Source of Latin American Income Inequality (July 13, 1999). Joint w/ Leamer. Background paper for World Bank World Development Report 2000/01, available here.  A related paper served as background research for an Inter-American Development Bank report on Nature, Development and Distribution in Latin America Evidence on the Role of Geography, Climate and Natural Resources.


Dormant Working Papers

A Note on Empirical Implementation of the Lens Condition (December 2004) Joint w/ Bernard, Robertson.

Ranking Countries According to the Value of Their Exports (December 2003)

Moving Up and Moving Out: Product-Level US Exports and Competition from Low-Wage Countries. (March 2002)

Land Abundance, Risk and Return: An HO Approach to FDI (May  1998)

Education, Development and Trade: What's the Relationship? (January, 1998)

Strategic Options:   Black-Scholes and Pearl Harbor (June 1997)