Scaling SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations to population estimates of infection
Edward H Kaplan, Alessandro Zulli, Marcela Sanchez, and Jordan Peccia
Scientific Reports 12, 3487 (2022)
Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments
With Alessandro Zulli, Annabelle Pan, Stephen M Bart, Forrest W Crawford, Edward H Kaplan, Matthew Cartter, Albert I Ko, Marcela Sanchez, Cade Brown, Duncan Cozens, Doug E Brackney, Joradan Peccia
FEMS Microbes (2022)
Modeling Local Coronavirus Outbreaks
Joseph T. Chang and Edward H. Kaplan
European Journal of Operational Research (2021)
Snapshot Models of Undocumented Immigration
with Scott Rodilitz
Risk Analysis (2020) https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13658
Controlling the spread of coronavirus via repeat testing and isolation
with Joseph T. Chang
Significance (2020).
Repeat SARS-CoV-2 Testing Models for Residential College Populations
with Joseph T. Chang and Forrest W. Crawford
Health Care Management Science (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-020-09526-0
Aligning SARS-CoV-2 Indicators via an Epidemic Model: Application to Hospital Admissions and RNA Detection in Sewage Sludge
with Dennis Wang, Mike Wang, Amyn A. Malik, Alessandro Zulli, and Jordan H. Peccia
Health Care Management Science (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-020-09525-1
Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater tracks community infection dynamics
Jordan Peccia, Alessandro Zulli, Doug E. Brackney, Nathan D. Grubaugh, Edward H. Kaplan, Arnau Casanovas-Massana, Albert I. Ko, Amyn A. Malik, Dennis Wang, Mike Wang, Joshua L. Warren, Daniel M. Weinberger, Wyatt Arnold & Saad B. Omer
Nature Biotechnology (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-020-0684-z
Logistics of Aggressive Community Screening for Coronavirus 2019
JAMA Network, May 4, 2020
COVID-19 Scratch Models to Support Local Decisions
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (2020)
Perspectives on Policy Modeling
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (2020)
Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus
Health Care Management Science (2020)
The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016
(with Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi and Jonathan Feinstein)
PLOS One 13(9): e0201193, 2018
Approximating the First-Come, First-Served Stochastic Matching Model with Ohm’s Law (with Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi)
Operations Research Vol 66, No. 5, September-October 2018, pp. 1423-1432)
Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events (with Ray Fair)
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 100, No. 4, pp. 704-711, 2018.
Decomposing Pythagoras (with Candler Rich)
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 13(4):141-149, 2017
An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services
with Gregg S. Gonsalves, Forrest W. Crawford, Paul D. Cleary, and A. David Paltiel Medical Decision Making, 2017, 38(2) 262-272, 2018
A Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States
with Gregg S. Gonsalves, A. David Paltiel, Paul D. Cleary, Michael John Gill, Mari M. Kitahata, Peter F. Rebeiro, Michael J. Silverberg, Michael Horberg, Alison G. Abraham, Keri N. Althoff, Richard Moore, Ronald J. Bosch, Tian Tiang, and H. Irene Hall
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 75(5):548-553, 2017
Differential Terror Queue Games
With Stefan Wrzaczek, Andrea Seidl, Jonathan P. Caulkins, and Gustav Feichtinger
December 2017, Volume 7, Issue 4, pp 578–593
Optimal Control of a Terror Queue
with Andrea Seidl, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Stefan Wrzaczek and Gustav Feichtinger
European Journal of Operational Research, 248:246-256, 2016.
A Markov Model for Hockey: Manpower Differential and Win Probability Added
with Kevin Mongeon and John T. Ryan
INFOR: Journal of the Canadian Operational Research Society, 52(2):39-50, 2014
Reducing Sexual Violence by Increasing the Supply of Toilets in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Mathematical Model
with Gregg Gonsalves and David Paltiel
PLOS One, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122244, April 2015
Socially Efficient Detection of Terror Plots
Oxford Economic Papers, 67:104-115, 2015.
Mass Casualty Potential of Qassam Rockets
with Lian Zucker
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 37:258–266, 2014
Staffing Models for Covert Counterterrorism Agencies
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 47:2-8, 2013
Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 35:880-894, 2012
Intelligence Operations Research
Operations Research, 60:1297-1309, 2012
Intel Queues
with Jonathan Feinstein
Military Operations Research 17:17-30, 2012
Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks
with Jonathan Feinstein
Public Choice 149:281-295, 2011
Operations Research and Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundation, (Baruch Fischhoff and Cherie Chauvin, editors). National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 31-56, 2011.
Terror Queues
Operations Research 58:773-784, 2010
Queue inference from periodic reporting data
with Jesse Frey
Operations Research Letters 38:420-426, 2010
Baseline, Placebo, and Treatment: Efficient Estimation for Three-Group Experiments
with Alan Gerber, Don Green, and Holger Kern
Political Analysis 18:297-315, 2010
Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization
with Jonathan Feinstein
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52:281-302, 2010
Confronting Entrenched Insurgents
with Moshe Kress and Roberto Szechtman
Operations Research, 58:329-341, 2010
FCFS Infinite Bipartite Matching of Servers and Customers
with Rene Caldentey and Gideon Weiss
Advances in Applied Probability, 41:695-730, 2009
Nature Plays with Dice – Terrorists Do Not: Allocating Resources to Counter Strategic and Probabilistic Risks
with Boaz Golany, Avi Marmur and Uri Rothblum
European Journal of Operational Research, 192:198-208, 2009
Estimation of HIV incidence in the United States
with H. Irene Hall, Ruiguang Song, Philip Rhodes, Joseph Prejean, Qian An, Lisa Lee, John Karon, Ron Brookmeyer, Matthew McKenna, and Robert Janssen
Journal of the American Medical Association, 300:520-529, 2008
Estimating HIV incidence in the United States from HIV/AIDS surveillance data and biomarker HIV test results
with John Karon, Ruiguang Song, Ron Brookmeyer and H. Irene Hall
Statistics in Medicine 27:4617–4633, 2008
Modeling a presidential prediction market
with M. Keith Chen and Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr.
Management Science, 54:1381-1394, 2008
Suicide bombings and targeted killings in (counter) terror games
with Daniel Jacobson
Journal of Conflict Resolution 51:772-792, 2007
A cure for the electoral college?
with Arnold Barnett
Chance 20:6-9, 2007
Getting Started. In The Operations Research Center at MIT
(Ingrid Yoerg Larson, editor)
Topics in Operations Research Series.
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, pp. 51-58, 2007.
Situational Awareness in a Bioterror Attack via Probability Modeling
with Johan Walden, in Risk Assessment and Risk Communication Strategies in Bioterrorism Preparedness
(MS Green, J Zenilman, D Cohen, I Wiser and RD Balicer, editors),
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series A: Chemistry and Biology, Part I, pp. 31-44, 2007
Anti-Israel sentiment predicts antisemitism in Europe.
with Charles Small
Journal of Conflict Resolution 50:548-561, 2006
Tactical prevention of suicide bombings in Israel.
with Alex Mintz and Shaul Mishal
Interfaces 36(6):553-561, 2006
Adventures in policy modeling: Operations research in the community and beyond.
Omega 36(1): 1–9, 2008.
Operational effectiveness of suicide-bomber-detector schemes: A best-case analysis.
with Moshe Kress
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102:10399-10404, 2005
What happened to suicide bombings in Israel? Insights from a terror stock model.
with Alex Mintz, Shaul Mishal, and Claudio Samban
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28:225-235, 2005
reprinted as a chapter in Psychology of Terrorism: The Best Writings about the Mind of the Terrorist (Edited by Jeff Victoroff and Arie W Kruglanski, Psychology Press, Taylor and Francis, 2007)
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 28:225-235, 2005
Estimating time and size of a bioterror attack
with Johan Walden
Emerging Infectious Diseases 10:1202-1205, 2004
The illusion of learning from observational research.
with Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber
Chapter 12 (pp. 251-273) in Shapiro I, Smith RM and Masoud TE (Eds.), Problems and Methods in the Study of Politics, Cambridge University Press, 2004
Preventing second generation infections in a smallpox bioterror attack,
Epidemiology 15:264-270, 2004.
Decision making for bioterror preparedness: examples from smallpox vaccination policy.
with Lawrence M. Wein
In Sainfort F, Brandeau ML and Pierskalla, WP (Eds.), Handbook of Operations Research and Health Care: Methods and Applications, pp. 519-536, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004
Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox
with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein
Mathematical Biosciences 185:33-72, 2003
Smallpox bioterror response [letter]
with Lawrence M. Wein
Science, 300:1503, 2003
Detecting a bioterror attack by screening blood donors: a best-case analysis
with Christopher Patton, William FitzGerald, and Lawrence M. Wein
Emerging Infectious Diseases 9:909-914,
Emergency response to an anthrax attack
with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100:4346-4351, 2003. (Published online before print March 21, 2003, 10.1073/pnas.0636861100)
More March Madness
with Michael Magazine
OR/MS Today 30(1):38-42, 2003
Optimizing admissions to an intensive care unit
with Charles Sprung and Amir Shmueli
Health Care Management Science 6:131-136, 2003
Smallpox eradication in West and Central Africa: surveillance-containment or herd immunity?
with Lawrence M. Wein
Epidemiology 14:90-92, 2003
A new approach to estimating the probability of winning the presidency
with Arnold Barnett
Operations Research, 51:32-40, 2003
Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination
with David L. Craft and Lawrence M. Wein
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99:10935-10940, 2002. (Published online before print July 12, 2002 (10.1073/pnas.162282799)
Allocating HIV prevention resources: balancing efficiency and equity
with Michael Merson
American Journal of Public Health 92:1905-1907, 2002
A model-based evaluation of a cultural mediator outreach Program for HIV+ Ethiopian immigrants in Israel
with Varda Soskolne, Ronny Shtarkshall, Bella Adler and Alexander Leventhal
Evaluation Review 26:382-394, 2002
Evaluating plasma holds in the presence of multiple infections
IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, 18:215-224, 2001
March Madness and the Office Pool
with Stanley J. Garstka
Management Science, 47:369-382
The Public Health Consequences of Screening Patients for Adherence to HAART
with Eric Tchetgen and Gerald Friedland
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 26:118-129
Repeat Screening for HIV: When to Test and Why
with Glen Satten
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 23:339-345, 2000
Treatment on Demand: An Operational Model
with Mira Johri
Health Care Management Science 3:171-183, 2000
Hold Everything! Holding Policies for Protecting Plasma Supplies
with Glen Satten
Mathematical Biosciences 160:159-173, 1999
Implicit Valuation of a Blood Exclusion Decision
Medical Decision Making, 19:207-213, 1999
Snapshot Estimators of Recent HIV Incidence Rates
with Ron Brookmeyer
Operations Research, 47:29-37, 1999
Allocating HIV Prevention Resources
with H. Pollack
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 32:257-263, 1998
Can Difficult-To-Reuse Syringes Reduce the Spread of HIV Among IDUs?
with J.P. Caulkins, P. Lurie, T. O’Connor and S-H Ahn
Interfaces, 28(3):23-33, 1998
Economic Evaluation and HIV Prevention Community Planning – A Policy Analyst’s Perspective
Handbook of Economic Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs. David Holtgrave (editor), 177-193, 1998 (Plenum Press, New York)
A Mathematical Model of HIV Transmission in New South Wales Prisons
with K. Dolan, A. Wodak, and W. Hall
Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 50:197-202, 1998
HIV Incidence among Ethiopian Immigrants to Israel
with E. Kedem and S. Pollack
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology, 17:465-469, 1998
Israel’s Ban on Use of Ethiopians’ Blood: How Many Infectious Donations were Prevented?
The Lancet, 351:1127-1128, 1998
Mixing Behavior in Cross-Country Diffusion
with W. Putsis, S. Balasubramian, and S. Sen
Marketing Science, 16:354-369, 1997
A Note on the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing: Accounting for Differential Participation Rates
with A. David Paltiel
Medical Decision Making, 17:490-495, 1997
Snapshot Samples
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences , 31:281-291, 1997
How Many HIV Infections Are There in Israel? Reconstructing HIV Incidence from AIDS Case Reporting
with P. Slater and V. Soskolne
Public Health Reviews, 23:215-235, 1995
Economic Analysis of Needle Exchange
AIDS, 9:1113-1119, 1995
Probability Models of Needle Exchange
Operations Research, 43:558-569, 1995
HIV Incidence among New Haven Needle Exchange Participants: Updated Estimates from Syringe Tracking and Testing Data
with R. Heimer
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 10:175-176, 1995
“Dropouts” or “Dropins”? Client Retention and Participation in New Haven’s Needle Exchange Program
with K. Khoshnood and R. Heimer
Public Health Reports, 110:462-466, 1995
An Analysis of the Process of HIV Sexual Risk Behavior Change
with S.M. Blower and G.J.P. van Griensven
Epidemiology, 6:238-242, 1995
Model-Based Representations of Human Sexual Behavior
in Sexual Nature, Sexual Culture (P. Abramson and S. Pinkerton, eds.), University of Chicago Press, pp. 353-370, 1995
A Method for Evaluating Needle Exchange Programs
Statistics in Medicine, 13:2179-2187, 1994
A Decline in HIV-Infected Needles Returned to a Needle Exchange Program: Client Shift or Needle Exchange?
with K. Khoshnood and R. Heimer
American Journal of Public Health, 84:1991-1994, 1994
AIDS Policy Modeling by Example
with M. Brandeau
AIDS, 8 (suppl 1):S333-S340, 1994
A Circulation Theory of Needle Exchange
with R. Heimer
AIDS, 8:567-574, 1994
HIV Incidence Among Needle Exchange Participants: Estimates from Syringe Tracking and Testing Data
with R. Heimer
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 7:182-189, 1994
Deterministic Approximations for Inventory Management at Service Facilities
with O. Berman and D. Shimshak
IIE Transactions, 25(5):98-104, 1993
What Happened to HIV Transmission among Drug Injectors in New Haven?
with R. Heimer
Chance, 6(2):9-14, 1993
Let The Needles Do The Talking! Evaluating the New Haven Needle Exchange
with E. O’Keefe; Edelman Award Paper
Interfaces, 23(1):7-26, 1993
abstract appears in “Abstracts of the Marschak Colloquium at UCLA,” Mathematical Social Sciences, 26:99-101, 1993
Needle Exchange Decreases the Prevalence of HIV-1 Proviral DNA in Returned Syringes in New Haven, Connecticut
with R. Heimer, K. Khoshnood, B. Jariwala, and E. Cadman
American Journal of Medicine, 95:214-220, 1993
The Epidemiological and Economic Consequences of AIDS Clinical Trials
with A.D. Paltiel
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 6:179-190, 1993
(also see editorial in same journal, 6:176-178)
How Many Drug Injectors Are There in New Haven? Answers from AIDS Data
with D. Soloshatz
Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 17:109-115, 1993
Prevalence of HIV-Infected Syringes During a Syringe-Exchange Program
with R. Heimer and E.C. Cadman
New England Journal of Medicine, 327:1883-1884, 1992
To Be Or Not To Be? That Is Conception! Managing In Vitro Fertilization Programs
with A. Hershlag, A.H. DeCherney, and G. Lavy
Management Science, 38:1217-1229, 1992
A Model-Based Estimate of HIV Infectivity via Needle Sharing
with R. Heimer
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 5:1116-1118, 1992
Needle Exchange or Needless Exchange? The State of the Debate
Infectious Agents and Disease, 1:92-98, 1992
Detection by Polymerase Chain Reaction of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Proviral DNA Sequences in Needles of Injecting Drug Users
with R. Heimer, S.S. Myers, and E.C. Cadman
Journal of Infectious Diseases, 165:781-782, 1992
R0 Bounds for Worst Case Endemic Mixing Models
Mathematical Biosciences, 110:131-132, 1992.
Asymptotic Worst-Case Mixing in Simple Demographic Models of HIV/AIDS
Mathematical Biosciences, 108:141-156, 1992
HIV Prevalence Among Intravenous Drug Users: Model-Based Estimates from New Haven’s Legal Needle Exchange
with R. Heimer
from New Haven’s Legal Needle Exchange, Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 5:163-169, 1992
Evaluating Needle-Exchange Programs via Syringe Tracking and Testing (STT)
AIDS and Public Policy Journal, 6:109-115, 1991
Heterogeneity in Patient Populations Explains Differences in In Vitro Fertilization Programs
with A. Hershlag, R. Loy, A. DeCherney, and G. Lavy
Fertility and Sterility, 56:913-917, 1991
Modeling Zidovudine Therapy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
with A.D. Paltiel
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 4:795-804, 1991
AIDS Impact on the Number of Intravenous Drug Users
with J. Caulkins
Interfaces, 21:50-63, 1991
Mean-Max Bounds for Worst Case Endemic Mixing Models
Mathematical Biosciences, 105:97-109, 1991
Worst Case Analysis of Sexual Mixing Models of HIV Transmission
Journal of Sex Research, 28:29-44, 1991
Self-Deferral, HIV Infection, and the Blood Supply: Evaluating an AIDS Intervention
with A. Novick
Evaluation Review, 14:686-700, 1990
An Overview of AIDS Modeling
Evaluating AIDS Prevention: Contributions of Multiple Disciplines
New Directions For Program Evaluation, 46:23-36, 1990
How Bad Can It Get? Bounding Worst-Case Endemic Heterogeneous Mixing Models of HIV/AIDS
with Y.S. Lee
Mathematical Biosciences, 99:157-180, 1990
Modeling HIV Infectivity: Must Sex Acts Be Counted?
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 3:55-61, 1990
Equity Maximizing Facility Location Schemes
with O. Berman
Transportation Science, 24:137-144, 1990
Nonrandom Mixing Models of HIV Transmission
with P.C. Cramton and A.D. Paltiel
Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, 83:218-241, 1989
Can Bad Models Suggest Good Policies? Sexual Mixing and the AIDS Epidemic
Journal of Sex Research, 26:301-314, 1989
What Are The Risks Of Risky Sex? Modeling The AIDS Epidemic
Operations Research, 37:198-209, 1989
Needles That Kill: Modeling HIV Transmission Via Shared Drug Injection Equipment In Shooting Galleries
Reviews of Infectious Diseases, 11:289-298, 1989 (Erratum, 11:672, 1989)
So What If The Program Ain’t Perfect? A Mathematical Model of AIDS Education
with P. Abramson
Evaluation Review, 13:107-122, 1989
OR Hits the Heights: Relocation Planning At The Orient Heights Housing Project
with O. Berman
Interfaces, 18:14-21, 1988
Relocation Problems Are Hard
with A. Amir
International Journal of Computer Mathematics, 25:101-110, 1988
A Public Housing Queue With Reneging And Task-Specific Servers
Decision Sciences, 19:383-391, 1988
A Fast Feasibility Test For Relocation Problems
with A. Amir
European Journal of Operational Research, 35:201-206, 1988
Facility Location And Capacity Planning With Delay-Dependent Demand
with O. Berman
International Journal of Production Research, 25:1173-1780, 1987
Tenant Assignment Policies With Time-Dependent Priorities
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 21:305-310, 1987
Analyzing Tenant Assignment Policies
Management Science, 33:395-408, 1987
Tenant Assignment Models
Operations Research, 34:832-843, 1986
Relocation Models For Public Housing Redevelopment Programs
Planning and Design, 13:5-19, 1986
Tenant Assignments: How PHA’s Fill Their Units
Journal of Housing, 42:13-20, 1985
Trip Distributions Revisited: A New Look At An Old Model
Geographical Analysis, 13:78-85, 1981
Evaluating the Effectiveness Of One-Officer Versus Two-Officer Patrol Units
Journal of Criminal Justice, 7:325-355, 1979